Murray River Delivery Risks and Shortfalls
Delivering water in the Murray system has always been challenging. Water is released from storages and travels long distances to where it is used along the length of the Murray River. It takes about three weeks to deliver water from Hume Dam to Mildura. “Shortfalls” can occur when river operators aren’t able to deliver water – including to irrigators and the environment – where and when it is needed.
In the Murray River downstream of the Barmah Narrows there has always been a risk of not being able to deliver all the water that water users are entitled to during peak demand periods over summer and autumn. River operators have a strong track record in actively managing the system to deliver water when and where it is needed and avoid a shortfall. However, a shortfall can happen if there is either:
- a heatwave and a sudden spike in demand (a delivery shortfall)
- not enough capacity in the system to supply water to meet all downstream needs throughout summer and autumn (a system shortfall).
Understanding and managing delivery risks together
Victoria is working with the other River Murray states, New South Wales and South Australia, along with the Murray-Darling Basin Authority to better understand delivery risks, including how the risks are changing and how we can collectively manage them. An Independent Panel is overseeing this interstate delivery risks work and has reported that delivery risks are real, and that they will increase in the future.
A joint report, Managing Delivery Risks in the River Murray System, was published in November 2020 that presented key findings from studies investigating delivery risks and the actions needed to support governments and water users to manage them.
Key findings from this report were summarised in a fact sheet to help water users and communities better understand delivery risks in the River Murray System, what has been changing, and the actions needed to help governments and water users respond to these risks.
What's changing in the system
Significant changes across the connected Murray-Darling Basin over the last 10 to 20 years are making it increasingly difficult to deliver water where and when it is needed for irrigation, other consumptive uses, and the environment, without damaging the environmental health of our waterways. These changes include the timing and location of demand for water in the Murray downstream of Barmah, the reduced channel capacity through the Barmah Narrows (sometimes referred to as “the Choke”) and less frequent and variable access to water in the Menindee Lakes.
Climate change will further increase risks due to reduced available water supply options for river operators to call on, and more frequent heatwaves expected to increase spikes in water demands.
A high-level summary of what’s changing in the Murray River is available below:
How governments are responding
To help mitigate increasing delivery risks and minimise the impacts of a potential shortfall, the Victorian government has done the following:
- Introduced the place of take approvals framework to clarify and protect the rights of Victorian water users to have water delivered down rivers and enable more flexibility for water users to manage their own delivery reliability during a shortfall.
- Introduced a cap on Victorian extraction share in the Murray River downstream of Barmah to protect the rights of existing entitlement holders and prevent their rights from being eroded.
- Updated trade rules to ensure that traded water from the Goulburn can be delivered within the ecological tolerances of Victorian rivers without increasing delivery risks.
- Encourages and supports Victorian water users to comply with restrictions in a shortfall, and ensures enforcement actions are applied in an outcome-focussed and proportionate manner.
The Victorian government is also working together with the New South Wales, South Australian and Commonwealth governments and the Murray Darling Basin Authority to manage delivery challenges arising from these system-wide changes by doing the following:
- Reviewing how we run the Murray system to make sure we minimise delivery risks and stay within the ecological tolerances of the system.
- Investigating options to respond to declining capacity of the Barmah Narrows through the Water Delivery Optimisation Program.
- Conducting further investigations to understand this increasing risk.
- Developing shortfall response plans to provide confidence and transparency about the process for how shortfalls are managed. The Victorian Murray Shortfall Response Plan (April 2026) sets out Victoria’s process for managing shortfalls.
Delivery risks – more information
To better understand and manage delivery risks, more information can be found in a series of reports prepared and commissioned jointly by the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA), Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia. These include:
- Irrigation area mapping of the Murray and Lower Darling rivers (2025)
- An investigation into the location of horticultural water demands (2022)
- Historical flows and water use in the southern connected Murray-Darling Basin (2021)
- Managing Delivery Risks in the River Murray System – What We Heard report (2021)
- Barmah Choke channel capacity and geomorphic investigation (2020)
- Review of historical use of water: Barmah to the South Australian Border (2020)
- Independent Panel on Capacity Risks Report (2019)
For additional information on shortfalls, mitigation measures and the MDBA led River Murray Shortfall Response Plan please visit the MDBA website.
As more information becomes available it will be published on the MDBA’s water demand and shortfalls website.
How water users can prepare for shortfalls
Water users in the Murray downstream of the Barmah Narrows need to be aware that delivery risks are real and that while river operators will do everything they can to avoid shortfalls, there may be occasions where that can’t be done and their water use needs to be restricted.
When shortfalls in the River Murray system cannot be avoided, the water available for delivery is shared between water users in the affected rationing areas, including by water users in NSW and South Australia. This means water use needs to be temporarily restricted to fairly share the impacts of the shortfall.
In Victoria, water users – including irrigators and domestic and stock users – are restricted in proportion to their extraction share (if a river diverter) or in proportion to their delivery share (if in an irrigation district).
The need to restrict water use due to a shortfall has been very rare, however the risk of shortfall is real and increasing. Restrictions to irrigators in the Murray River below Barmah due to a shortfall has only occurred once (in March 2002) when a 10 gigalitre shortfall occurred over a two-week period. This resulted in an average level of restrictions of about 10% being imposed on irrigators.
To manage the impacts of a shortfall, water users may choose to build on farm storage or talk to their water corporation about accessing additional delivery share or extraction share through trading with others within the same rationing area.
What is the risk of Murray River shortfall this season?
During the peak irrigation season the MBDA reports on the current risk of a delivery shortfall in the River Operations Weekly Report.
The Annual Operating Outlook for the River Murray System usually includes commentary on the risk of system shortfall each year. This outlook is published in August and updated in December.
Victorian Murray Shortfall Response Plan
Victoria recognises the importance of having a plan in place to ensure that the response to a shortfall event is coordinated and effective, and limits the impacts on water users and the community.
The first Victorian Murray Shortfall Response Plan was published in 2022 to provide confidence and transparency in the process of managing shortfall events to Victorian water users and the community.
The plan has been updated in 2026 to reflect changes following the introduction of the ‘place of take approvals’ framework in November 2023, and also includes improved processes developed between DEECA, relevant rural water corporations and agencies.
The plan is used by the Victorian Government and agencies within the water sector with a role in the management of shortfall events. As an operational document it is subject to regular updates and will be amended over time.
Murray River shortfalls – more information
DEECA FAQs and fact sheets
DEECA has prepared a fact sheet and FAQ document to help Victorian water users and communities better understand and manage shortfalls in the Murray River downstream of Barmah.
The Murray River delivery risks fact sheet provides a summary of these risks and how they are managed, and informs water users on what a shortfall means for them and how to stay informed.
The Murray Delivery Risks and Shortfalls FAQs explains in more detail what shortfalls are and provides answers to questions related to delivery risks and shortfall events.